Hope you are all doing well. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ finished down fractionally for the week, while the Dow ended 1.6% lower. The NFL opens this weekend, I have broken down this week’s update using Football terms.
In November of 1987, Bo Jackson made history with this iconic 91 …
Explosive Play
Oil prices made an explosive move this week despite slipping on Friday. They were more than 8% higher for the week. U.S. crude trading above $100 per barrel, the highest in nearly four months. That’s up sharply from the roughly $70 level of early July but well below the year-to-date high of nearly $113 reached in early April. Oil prices shouldn’t have too much impact on stocks unless it gets above $120 and stays there for an extended amount of time.
Goal Line Defense
The U.S. Federal Reserve is trying to keep inflation from advancing. Two reports reflected persistently elevated inflation both at the consumer and wholesale levels. However, the rate is not gaining much; it’s holding steady. Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a 3.4% annual rate in August. That is unchanged from the previous month and still well above the Fed’s 2.0% target. A separate report on producer prices showed inflation rose in August from July’s elevated level but the increase was slight and in line with expectations. Trading in rate futures markets on Friday afternoon implied an 88% probability that the Fed would raise its benchmark rate by a quarter point at their next meeting. Expectations are shifting as just a week earlier, the probability of a September rate increase was 59%.
4th and Long
Consumers are not feeling too optimistic. The monthly gauge of U.S. consumer sentiment fell sharply amid mounting worries about inflation. On Friday the Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to a preliminary September reading of 47.8, down from 51.7 in August and 55.2 in July. Despite the decline, sentiment remains above the record low of 44.8 that was recorded in May 2026. Falling sentiment can indicate consumers are less willing to spend. I am not overly concerned about recession just yet but it bears watching.
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